I have a very important point to make that I believe gets lost in the day-to-day quibbling about celebrity ads and the VP speculation.
Senator Obama is doing very, very well.
For Obama to win, he needs to win the electoral college. The fact of the matter is that Obama is in a much better position to win 269 electoral votes than McCain is. Consider the following:
Obama is ahead in every single state that John Kerry won in 2004. He's up in New Hampshire (O48-M42), Michigan (O48-M42), Wisconsin (O49-M39) and Minnesota (O49-M40).
If Obama carries every state that Kerry won, he'll have 252 electoral votes in the bag.
Obama also has statistically significant leads in Iowa (O47-M41) and New Mexico (O49-M41). This brings the total to 264.
Now how does he get to 269? Where does he get his final 5 electoral votes?
From this menu of seven Big Swing States:
Virginia (O46-M45)
Ohio (O46-M43)
Colorado (O46-M46)
Indiana (O42-M43)
Nevada (O43-M47)
Florida (O45-M46)
Missouri (O44-M47)
And if that doesn't work for you, how about winning two of these Small Swing States?
Alaska (O45-M42)
Montana (O47-M47)
North Dakota (O42-M45)
South Dakota (O40-M44)
To win the White House, Obama has to win just one of those Big Swing States. Just one.
If he loses in Virginia, with the Warner/Webb/Kaine Democratic tide, he can always win in Ohio.
If he also loses in Ohio, the state that sent Sherrod Brown to the Senate two years ago, he always has Colorado.
If he also loses in Colorado, the state where McCain wants to steal their water, he always has Indiana.
If he also loses in Indiana, the state where he overpreformed his numbers in a contested primary, he always has Nevada.
If he also loses in Nevada, the third-in-the-nation primary state where McCain got 13% of the vote, there's always Florida.
If he also loses in Florida, the state where McCain hasn't spent a dime on TV advertising, there's always Missouri.
If he also loses in Missouri, Claire McCaskill's home state, there's always Alaska.
If he also loses in Alaska, the state with the most corrupt Republican Party in the country, there's always Montana.
If he also loses in Montana, Brian Schweitzer's libertarian country, there's always the Dakotas.
If he also loses in the Dakotas, the territory where he's polling 20-30 points better than John Kerry, then John McCain would have run the table.
Now which do you think is more likely?
Obama winning one of the Big Swing States or two of the Small Swing States?
Or McCain winning all seven of the Big Swing States and three of the four Small Swing States?