It’s no secret that Hillary Clinton has a tough road ahead. While Clinton was planning on having a solid delegate lead of over 100 today, she is instead behind Obama. She has never taken the lead in delegates throughout this entire race. Last night was supposed to be the first time that she took the lead since Obama pulled ahead after Iowa, but instead an Obama wave crushed those hopes.
The upcoming states do not look friendly for Clinton. As I outlined in my diary last night, the upcoming states of Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, Maryland, Washington DC, Hawaii, Maine, and Virginia all lean Obama. As the race stands right now, the only states that Clinton has a serious chance of winning are Texas and Ohio on March 4th.
What are Clinton’s plans to stop this Obama avalanche in February?
I think we might have some idea now regarding what she plans on doing and what she should do.
Keith Olbermann had a segment tonight discussing the upcoming calendar for the Democrats. It was very obvious that the upcoming races do not favor Clinton in the least. However, it was mentioned that Clinton may be skipping the next few weeks so she can focus exclusively on Texas and Ohio.
It’s no secret that Clinton does not have enough money to support a multi-state race right now. After spending tens of millions already in the race, Clinton has been forced to not only loan her own campaign $5 million of her own money, she has also asked her staffers to work without pay. This is not a good sign for the Clinton campaign to be this strapped for cash right when they are falling behind.
It would make sense on one level for Clinton to set up camp in Texas and Ohio and cede the rest of February to Obama. It would take resources her campaign does not have to put up a good fight in all of those states. If she becomes a temporary resident of Texas and Ohio, though, she can really introduce herself to those people and get lots of good local (free) media.
But doesn’t this strategy sound familiar? Seems like another New York politician has tried this recently. And it didn’t work out too well for Rudy Giuliani.
The former Republican front-runner employed a similar strategy. He skipped out on Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Michigan, and South Carolina, deeming those states unwinnable for him. Instead, he bet the farm on Florida. For weeks he remained the national front-runner and the leader in Florida. But as his opponents racked up wins, Giuliani found himself falling behind in the Sunshine State. In the end, he finished a dismal 3rd.
If Clinton skips all the remaining February states, she will undoubtedly suffer the same fate as the former Mayor. We’ve seen momentum shift back and forth between Clinton and Obama as they traded victories. It’s no coincidence that Obama’s recent uptick in the polls followed his 30 point victory in South Carolina. If Obama is allowed to rack up 9 victories before March 4th, Clinton will be fighting with a "loser" stamp placed squarely on her forehead. With each victory a candidate becomes more popular and more likely to win upcoming contests. If Clinton concedes nine states to Obama, she is giving up on the race.
The only way Clinton can avoid this fate is if she takes on Obama in a handful of states this month. The most favorable to her based on conventional wisdom are Virginia, Maine, and Wisconsin.
Even though Maine is a caucus, Clinton should start working hard tomorrow to win the caucus on Sunday. Maine is a very white, older state with a lower rate of college graduates than the national average. It is a northeast state that should give Clinton a good chance of victory. If she gives up on Maine, she is wasting an opportunity.
Things just get more difficult from then on. Clinton could contest Virginia, but its demographics do not look favorable for her. 1/5th of the state is African American, but only 6% of the population is of Hispanic origin. Virginia is also more educated than the national average. Virginia would be Clinton’s second best chance at winning a state before March 4th.
Finally, there is Wisconsin. The state is similar demographically to Iowa—Average education and few minorities. It could be friendly to Clinton. But there could also be a "neighboring state" effect. Illinois is right next door, and Obama won neighboring Minnesota by a 2-1 margin.
It’s clear that Clinton has to make a stand in one or more of these states. If she loses all three, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that she will lose the nomination.