Maybe it’s just the excitement of the night talking, but I don’t see any way that Barack Obama loses the nomination.
Barack Obama will be our nominee and the next President of the United States.
Don’t believe me? Follow my logic below the fold...
Tonight was a solid victory for Obama no matter how you slice it. It is on par with his victories in Iowa and South Carolina. Obama has won at least 13 states out of 22. Chuck Todd of MSNBC predicts that, at worst, Obama will have a net gain of 4 delegates out of tonight, leaving him with a 19 delegate lead over Senator Clinton.
The conventional wisdom going in to Super Tuesday was clear: Obama was gaining in all the polls, and Clinton had to stop him now. Obama’s best case scenario was winning 11 states and keeping within 100 delegates of Clinton.
Obama blew the conventional wisdom away. Not only did he win a solid majority of states, he won them by huge margins. Alaska by 48, Utah by 18, Colorado by 35, Idaho by 63, Minnesota by 35, Kansas by 48, North Dakota by 24, Alabama by 14, Delaware by 10, Illinois by 32, and Georgia by a whopping 36.
Obama rocked the nation tonight. There is no way any sane person can call this anything but a huge victory for the former underdog in this race.
With such an astonishing victory tonight, it’s tough not to see Obama riding this wave all the way to the nomination. Consider the following factors:
National Polling: On the eve of Super Tuesday, the national polls were clear: This race was dead even. CNN had Obama up 3. Cook had him up 6. Gallup had Clinton up 2. CBS had a tie. As of this morning, there was no front-runner in the Democratic race.
That will change after tonight. After winning the most states and the most delegates, Obama will be the front-runner. He will lead in the national polls by the end of the week. If you think Iowa and South Carolina gave Obama a bump in the polls, imagine how big of a bump he will get after winning across the country.
The Upcoming Calendar: It’s no secret that the Clinton camp is terrified of the upcoming primary calendar. They needed to secure Clinton as the national front-runner and default candidate tonight and they failure to do so. Because of that, Obama will continue to rack up victories in the upcoming states:
Nebraska, Louisiana, and Washington state are all coming up on Saturday. All three of these states should favor Obama. The western states like Idaho, Minnesota, Kansas, and Colorado all love him, so Nebraska should be an easy victory partly because it’s a caucus. Louisiana has very favorable demographics for Obama with one-third of the state being African American. Washington is the perfect state for the meshing of Obama’s African American/young professional coalition. Expect Obama to win Seattle in a big way.
On February 12th, the race moves to DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Again, expect big turnouts from African Americans and young professionals to carry Obama to victory. You better believe American University students will be doing everything possible to ensure Obama wins all three states.
The following Tuesday, Wisconsin has its say. The latest polls in that state was from December, and showed Obama trailing Clinton by only 13. Expect future polls to show Obama with a lead there. His impending victories in the other February states will only boost his momentum.
Also on February 19th we have Obama’s other home state, Hawaii. Expect him to get upwards of 70% of the vote.
Finally, we arrive at March 4th. At this point in the campaign, Obama will be leading nationally and would have tallied up at least half a dozen wins in the post-super Tuesday period. Obama will be swimming in cash Scrooge McDuck-style. He will be picking up large chunks of the remaining 2/3rds of the undeclared Super Delegates.
On March 4th, Obama will decisively win Texas, Ohio, and Vermont. A January 31st poll has Obama down by only ten in Texas. In one month’s time, expect Obama to be ahead by a significant margin. Vermont is perfect territory for Obama. The people who gave Howard Dean his only primary victory will assuredly carry Obama across the finish line.
When it comes to Ohio, Obama will have all the cash and ground troops needed to win the state. While Obama will have nearly unlimited resources, Clinton will be running dry.
After winning no states on March 4th, Clinton will have no choice but to drop out on March 5th. Obama’s delegate lead will be too much even if Michigan and Florida were to be counted. The Super Delegates, wanting to ensure their own job security and have access to the new White House, will line up behind the winner of the majority of the elected delegates.
Money: Clinton’s resources have dried up. Obama outraised her 3-to-1 in January alone. He brought in over 30 million dollars last month. Following that trend, February is sure to be a boon to Obama’s fundraising. He will bring in a lot of money from a lot of new contributors, and Clinton will be unable to compete in the upcoming races. By the time the big states of Ohio and Texas roll around, Obama will have the resources necessary. Clinton will not.
Overall, I cannot see any way that Clinton wins the nomination. Unless Obama has a Dean-like moment, he will continue on his way to the nomination and the White House.
We still have work to do, but it will be a heck of a lot easier from here on out.
Job well done, President Obama.
Update [2008-2-6 11:0:49 by Kal]: Time has a good delegate counter for last night. Looks like Chuck Todd was pretty accurate. Time says Obama won 845 and Clinton won 836. Couple that with Obama's 15 delegate lead going in to last night and it certainly looks like he kept it within 100 like he was supposed to, eh?
Regarding the upcoming primaries and caucuses, I forgot to mention Maine's caucus this weekend. In all likelihood, Obama will win there as well.
Some people need to remember that the contests last night were not winner-take-all. The margin of victory matters more than which states you got a plurality of the vote it, as is shown by Obama's astounding delegate lead.
Just because Clinton "won" a state does not mean Obama will not take that state in November. Are people seriously speculating that he's going to lose MA, NJ, NY, or CA? And people say I'm smoking crack!
When it comes to apportioning delegates, those won in caucuses count just as much as those won in primaries. Votes in Georgia, Alaska, Illinois, and Kansas count just the same as votes in California and New York. One person, one vote. The Supreme Court decided that long ago.
I am surprised this made it to the rec list. Just a bit of idle speculation for a Wednesday morning. As the race stands right now, I don't see how Obama loses this without a Dean-like gaffe. Texas and Ohio are actually more favorable to Obama demographically than California, as African Americans make up about 25% of the Democratic Party in those two states. After losing 8-10 contests in the post-Super Tuesday period, I can't see Clinton winning either hotly contested March 4th state.