One of my favorite sites to visit during the 2004 Presidential campaign was Electoralvote.com. The site catalogued all the recent Bush/Kerry polls in each state to give us a better idea of how the election would shake out. After all, there is no national election in this country. Instead, each of the fifty states chooses who they want to be the next President. The site ignored national polls and instead focused on state polls.
The site now is focused on the primary results and has not shifted over to the general election matchups. That makes sense, as we do not have a Democratic nominee yet. But I wanted to get a sense of how Obama and Clinton fare against John McCain in the general election.
Using the latest polls, I put together a spreadsheet and a few maps to show the results. I have to add the standard disclaimers, though: The general election campaign is not yet here. We have not seen Obama, Clinton, and McCain campaign in the crucial swing states. Anything can happen between now and November.
Below are the numbers (Image heavy!)
Here is where we stand today: (click for full view)
(States with no recent polls were given to the state's winner in 2004)
(Feel free to download the spreadsheet I put together here)
Here are what the General Election Maps look like:
Obama vs. McCain: (click for full view)
Clinton vs. McCain: (click for full view)
A few more comments: All of the polls are from after the Iowa Caucuses. However, due to recent movement in the race, I would say that some of the polls are too old. The Ohio poll, for example, is from January 7th and still shows a very tight race for both Clinton and Obama. I haven’t seen a poll for Virginia from the last month, either.
This is just an educated guess about where we stand today. I don’t believe for a second that Obama will lose Massachusetts or Clinton will lose Connecticut. It does appear that Obama has a very good chance at winning Nevada, Iowa, and Colorado. Both candidates are competitive in Florida and Ohio. We have work to do in Minnesota and Wisconsin, regardless of who the nominee is.
Clinton will have to spend more time playing defense than Obama, though. Because Obama is a better draw for independents than Clinton, he has Pennsylvania, Washington, and Oregon locked up, while those states are toss-ups for a Clinton/McCain match-up.
Regardless, as the race stands right now, McCain wins a plurality of the electoral votes. This election will take a lot of work by both the candidate and his/her supporters. Looking at these numbers, we are the underdog in the general election. The election will be more like 2000 than 1996. Winning the nomination isn’t the end of the campaign, but rather the beginning.