The Republican Party, as it stands now, is doomed. The party will no longer be viable on a national level in its current state. The party is largely anti-immigrant, socially conservative, and pro-business. Given the shifting demographics of the country, those positions, taken together, are no longer a winning combination.
The Republicans are losing young voters and racial minorities by margins never before seen. The coalitions of the parties largely consist of straight, white, married Protestants for the Republicans and everyone else in the Democratic camp.
Take a look at these exit polls:
Vote by Age:
18-29 (18%): Obama 66, McCain 32
30-44 (29%): Obama 52, McCain 46
45-64 (37%): Obama 50, McCain 49
65 and older (16%): Obama 45, McCain 53
Vote by Race:
White (74%): Obama 43, McCain 55
African-American (13%): Obama 95, McCain 4
Latino (9%): Obama 67, McCain 31
Young people overwhelmingly went for Barack Obama. Latino voters, after being largely split in 2000 and 2004, voted for the President-elect by more than 2:1.
Today’s young people comprise the largest generation in American history. This is partly tied to the increases in immigration from Central America since 1980, which has resulted in a new generation of natural-born American citizens of Latino descent. The fastest growing demographic group in America is the Latino population. What’s more, today’s young people will continue to form a bigger and bigger share of the electoral pie as time marches on and older voters are replaced with those born in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Today’s young voters will be voting for decades to come.
These two demographic groups will continue to increase in size as time goes on.
It’s these two demographic groups, young people and Latinos, that spell doom for the Republican party. Latino voters obviously reject the Republican demonization of minorities and immigration. Young voters largely reject conservative stances on social issues. 18-29 year olds are the first generations to convincingly support same-sex marriage by a significant margin, for example:
Ballot Measures: California Prop 8
Vote by Age:
18-29 (20%): Yes 39, No 61
30-44 (28%): Yes 55, No 45
45-64 (36%): Yes 54, No 46
65 and older (15%): Yes 61, No 39
If the Republican party wants to be viable on the national stage again, they are going to have to cater to at least one of these groups.
To be appetizing for young people, the party is going to have to dump its social conservative stances. They will never win the millennial voters by attacking gay people and threatening to outlaw abortion. The party will have to nominate pro-choice, socially tolerant people to attract today’s young voters.
To appeal to Latinos, the Republican Party will have to start adopting positions that are favorable to racial minorities. Government support for urban areas and their unique problems. Support for comprehensive immigration reform that provides a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. A more open and fair foreign policy towards Mexico and Cuba. Until the Republican Party abandons its know-nothing, nativist wing, they cannot win the fastest-growing demographic in the country.
It’s no coincidence that the Republican Party controls no seats in Congress in New Mexico, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
Unless the Party dramatically changes its position on some key issues, they cannot retake power because of their ideas.