Barack Obama needs to change the state of the race. As the race lies today, he will win South Carolina on Saturday and Illinois on February 5th, but will not get a plurality in any other state. If every state had their primary today, Obama would end up with several hundred delegates—maybe even over one thousand—but he would be well short of winning the nomination. Say hello to the 2008 Democratic nominee, Senator Clinton.
But the primaries are not being held today. Obama has almost two weeks until Super Tuesday. During that time, he can catch Clinton. He is only about 10 points behind Clinton nationally, and a boost of 10 points will make him competitive in key states such as Alabama, New Jersey, Connecticut, and California.
Obama’s going to need to change the game before Super Tuesday if he wants to win this thing. Normally there is no huge bounce out of South Carolina. Remember that John Edwards did not get one in 2004. It’s very unlikely that a victory in South Carolina alone will bring Obama close enough to Clinton.
Obama needs to hope for a big development before February 5th. One such development involves John Edwards, and it’s not him dropping out of the race.
While Obama is maintaining a large 10 to 15 point lead over Clinton in South Carolina, there appears to be some movement in the polls. Edwards is coming back and may overtake Clinton in his home state.
Right now, Clinton is seen as the front-runner in the Democratic race because she has won two primaries in a row and still has a lead nationally. However, imagine what would happen to that image if she finished a dismal third in South Carolina. She will undoubtedly try to spin Obama’s victory as the black candidate winning the "black primary", but how could she credibly counter Edwards’ second place finish? She would have lost the black vote to Obama and the white vote to Edwards. Women, who make up 57% of Democratic voters in South Carolina, would have chosen another candidate. A third place finish would be debilitating for Clinton.
Instead of the expected "Obama wins South Carolina" headline, everyone in the media will talk about "Clinton comes in third." The media would spend the following week and a half talking about what the Clintons did to alienate the voters. Every negative Clinton clip will be played and replayed as the "analysts" do their "work."
This development would not only give Obama a bump, but it would do what Iowa didn’t: Remove support from Clinton. After Iowa, Obama increased his standing the polls, but Clinton’s support did not fall as Dean’s did in 2004. Instead of a rising Obama overtaking a falling Clinton, we had a rising Obama tying a steady Clinton. A third place finish for Clinton in South Carolina could hurt Clinton enough for Obama to overtake her. That's the key to victory.
If this scenario doesn’t pan out, and Clinton takes second in South Carolina, then Obama’s last chance is to hit the trail hard in a few key February 5th states. Like he did in Iowa, he can win over the locals with some face-to-face interactions. He does have over a week between South Carolina and February 5th. While I would bet against his chances, if anyone could do it, it’s Obama.
Every Obama fan here should be cheering for Edwards in South Carolina. The more he rises, the worse Clinton does. And in this game, what’s bad for Clinton is good for Obama.